39 Seconds

39 seconds: the timegap between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck after the final competitive stage of the Tour de France. It's the second narrowest margin in history after the great LeMond/Fignon struggle in '89, but the significance of those 39 seconds is far greater than that.

Contador attacked on the Port de Bales earlier in the Tour following a freak mechanical problem on Andy Schleck, and gained - you guessed it - 39 seconds. It cannot be certain that Schleck's attack would have succeeded, in fact he lost time on the descent while pursuing Contador, but he would at least have finished at the same time, hypothetically preserving Schleck's 31 seconds lead.

Many predicted that the result at Bagnères-de-Luchon would decide the outcome of Tour, and how right they were. Had Contador refrained from attacking we could have seen a dead heat for the first time ever; I have absolutely no idea what protocol would be followed had that been the case. Enough has been said about Contador's decision to attack so I won't add anything other than retrospectively as a race-winning move it was justified, but also deprived us of a truly epic battle up the Col du Tourmalet.

The other surprise was how poorly Contador performed in the time-trial, finishing in the mid-30s, just 31 seconds ahead of the typically far weaker Schleck. When compared to last year's penultimate day time-trial - which Contador won ahead of Fabian Cancellara - a drastic collapse in physical power is evident. There is no chance of an accurate analysis of the reasons for this, but I suspect Contador was simply shattered after a Tour de France in which he was pushed all the way. Interestingly, Schleck actually lost less time over 50km than over the 10km prologue: 31s vs 42s.

So many ifs and buts! It's been engrossing, but hopefully 2011 will end in more satisfactory fashion.

PS Probably the last TdF blog until next year.